"The tax turned out to be a complete turkey, which everyone knew it would be except the Greens."
That quote says the guy is a complete imbecile. I don't remember reading where he said this when the deal was struck. Every idiot can be a post event expert, but for any credibility you have to say it just after the deal is struck and not years down the track.
What was understood by anyone with understanding of the mineral resources market is that the mineral price received would fluctuate. There was a small number of people that did point this out at the time, but I don't remember anyone saying that prices would drop to the extent they have. Hence the gross income of the various companies was way down on EVERYONE'S expectation
As to the other factor,; accelerated depreciation, I don't remember anyone predicting that it would be sufficient to wipe out/mostly offset the "MRRT".
Does anyone want to lay a bet that the liberals will not abolish the tax?
Reason; because in future years, there is going to be very little depreciation offset and the companies are going to suddenly find themselves with super profits* and we all now how much the liberals want cash to hand out to everyone..
*Caveat; Mongolia
So, it was logical that this might happen. Unlike the GFC predictions, you'll find hens teeth before you'll find an accurate explanative prediction that it would occur.
Did it occur to you green frothers that "the split" is just the start of the Greens election campaign? Milne said it herself when she said something along the lines of "Under the agreement, we couldn't critiscise the mining companies. Now that it has ended, we can make comment without restriction". Like it or lump it, the election campaign has started.
Also, did anyone catch the admission from Treasury that they do NOT collect sufficient figures, from companies, to accurately to predict with any great accuracy the income/costs of any government policies.